Sovereignty Reigns Supreme, CAW Issue is Problematic

Thoroughbred racing fans were treated to a tour de force performance by Sovereignty in this year’s Jim Dandy Stakes. On a beautiful day in front of a large appreciative crowd, Sovereignty showed his dominance defeating Baeza, who tried hard all the way to the wire. 

The Jim Dandy field was strong, and in an elongated Saratoga racing season, it seemed more like the Travers Stakes than a Travers prep. The crowd treated it like a coronation, and in many ways, it was. Sovereignty, under the usual heavy ride by Junior Alvarado, toyed with his opponents, at one point dropping back to last, only to make his usual powerful outside run through the stretch. The measured Jim Dandy victory seems to be a perfect set up for the Travers Stakes in a month’s time. Sovereignty is the undisputed leader of this extraordinary three-year-old crop.

Eyes now turn towards the older horses, particularly Repole Stable’s Fierceness, who is expected to be favored in the Whitney Stakes on Saturday Aug. 2. Run since 1928 and named for the Whitney Family, the race is among the most important races on the Thoroughbred calendar.

The Whitney is just one of several stakes races on a tremendous racing card. Sovereignty will face older horses if he were to run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar race track in San Diego on Nov. 1.

To Tapit or Not to Tapit? That is the question.

The sire Tapit has proven to produce tremendously talented racehorses. To date, he has produced almost 2,700 foals and stands for a stud fee of $185,000 at the age of 24. He is also known for producing very quirky offspring. Horses by Tapit simply run hard when they feel like it, and conversely, do not run hard when they don’t. Whether you will get a top effort from them is known only to them. They have minds of their own. It’s a frustrating trait in a sport where so much depends upon predicting performance. 

This was on display over the past weekend at Saratoga. Tapit progeny showed equal flashes of brilliance and apathy. Arthur’s Ride, so brilliant winning the Whitney Stakes in 2024, returned to the races and was a laid-back nonchalant presence in the paddock, the post parade, the gate, and throughout the race. His mind was clearly somewhere else on Saturday as he seemed to simply go through the motions as the beaten odds-on favorite. It remains to be seen whether Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott can reignite the fire in him. 

Another son of Tapit, Sandman, appeared to be unmoved by the addition of blinkers in the Jim Dandy. The striking three-year-old once again showed that Tapits run only when they feel like it. While there is no doubt that a big effort is to come from Sandman (who has become a social media star due to having an internet influencer in his ownership group), only he knows when it will happen.

On the brilliant side, Todd Pletcher unveiled a good-looking two-year-old colt by Tapit, appropriately named Tapit’s Legacy, to win at first asking in the slop on Sunday. It was a promising effort. He will likely be favored when he runs back. Beware.

Tote Technology – CAWs

Much of the recent conversation in horse racing circles is the continued late change of odds in the Win, Place, Show pools and the exotic pools. These changes occur from large last-second bets from Computer Assisted Wagering groups (“CAWs”) that are able to make large algorithmic wagers using information of what has already been bet. The general wagering public only sees the effect of these wagers as or after the race itself has begun. This week, Del Mar race track will be joining the New York Racing Association (NYRA) in banning or limiting these wagers in the basic Win, Place, and Show pools.

The industry has become reliant on these wagering groups since their handle is large. Some race tracks are actual investors in the CAW groups. This inherent conflict of interest is troubling. There is also the belief that some licensed trainers work for or with the CAW groups. These circumstances are rapidly causing a crisis of confidence among the non-CAW bettors.

Defenders of the CAWs, including influential industry voices, contend that the CAWs expend significant resources honing that edge, which goes to show how valuable that edge is to them. (It is worth noting that such expenditures are made largely outside the sport but are funded from winnings from mutuel pools.) While the New York Racing Association (and to a much lesser degree Del Mar) are to be commended for reducing the CAW edge in the basic pools, what is needed is an industry-wide stance to somehow produce a more level playing field. This crisis of confidence has the potential to cannibalize the non-CAW betting populace, and it is something that needs to be addressed quickly.