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Keeping an Eye on the Growing Recession Risks in 2023

Here’s what we are up against: leading economic indicators are signaling imminent danger, the housing market has drastically cooled off, and the Federal Reserve is committed to ensuring we don’t repeat the economic environment of the 1970s. “Besides that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” I recently saw data that said there is 100% certainty of a recession this year. In a world of probabilities, I like to avoid absolutes like that. What follows is not a prediction of what I think will happen but rather a look at the other side of the argument.

Inflation is cooling off. Recent inflation reports have become a favorite tool of politicians pointing to improvements in the economic situation. The widely tracked Consumer Price Index actually fell from November to December, which was cause for celebration in some circles. However, the index was still 6.4% above where it was a year ago, which is roughly three times higher than the Federal Reserve would like to see. While elevated prices are likely here to stay, the pace at which they are increasing is showing a declining trend.

The Federal Reserve is slowing the pace at which it is increasing interest rates because of slowing inflation. Last year, we saw four straight increases of 0.75% before its December increase of 0.50%. Expectations are for a 0.25% increase in February and a slight chance of that being the final hike of this cycle. Inflation is the linchpin to all of this, and a resumption of an upward trend in prices would undoubtedly force the Fed’s hand again.

China has apparently thrown in the towel in its fight against COVID. With that, its economic reopening could be an interesting story to follow this year. As the world’s second-largest economy, China represents a vital cog in the global economic machine. Their manufacturing helps to control costs by bringing more supply to the market. Additionally, the demand for goods and services within their borders and abroad is about to shift into high gear. Their population of 1.4 billion people is about to start spending money after accumulating cash over the last three years while sitting at home. Economic data and messaging from the Chinese government should always be taken with a grain of salt, but it is something to keep an eye on as it develops.

Housing could see a boost with mortgage rates declining. Over the last twelve months, we have watched the housing market go from red hot to ice cold – a jump in mortgage rates from 3% to 7% will do that. Since peaking at 7%, mortgage rates have fallen and currently sit at 6.15%. That is still much higher than we saw during 2020-2021, but the squeeze has been eased. It has been said that housing is the business cycle because the purchase of a house directly or indirectly impacts many different sectors of the economy, from banks to consumer goods, so an uptick in housing activity would provide a boost to the economy.

Harry Truman once famously requested a one-handed economist because he was frustrated with his advisors beginning their economic reports with, “on the one hand….” Economists have dropped their two-handed approach by predicting a 100% chance of recession this year. There is no denying that things look bad at the moment, especially if you watch the news. Hopefully, this article has helped you to see the other hand.

David Rath, CMT, CFA, is the Chief Investment Officer at Continuum Wealth Advisors in Saratoga Springs. Continuum Wealth Advisors, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor registered through the Securities and Exchange Commission.

For more information, visit contwealth.com.

Daniela D. McKee, Anthony Bonacio, and Jacob Patrick Sewell Join Julie & Co. Realty, LLC

SARATOGA SPRINGS — Julie & Co. Realty has announced Daniela D. McKee, Anthony Bonacio, and Jacob Patrick Sewell as the newest members of their brokerage in Saratoga Springs.

Daniela McKee was born in New York but had the opportunity to spend her earliest years growing up in Italy and Peru. She has had 20 years of experience managing properties, including buying and selling residential properties, along with several commercial properties. Daniela is well-versed in client relations and management, as well as fluent in Spanish and conversational in Italian.

Anthony Bonacio was born and raised in Saratoga Springs. He graduated with his M.S. in Accountancy in 2019 from Siena College and began his career in accounting and finance. After being in the property management business and meeting salespeople, Anthony decided to pursue his own real estate license. Anthony divides his time between his career, spending time with his dog, and hiking in both the High Peaks region of the Adirondacks and the Rockies in the Western US. He also enjoys spending time with his family and partaking in landscape photography and videography. 

Jacob Patrick Sewell lived in Greenfield for 18-plus years and currently resides in Saratoga Springs, where he worked as a welder and fabricator for several years. Now working in real estate, Jake is particularly interested in helping others find the perfect home or investment property. When not helping home buyers and sellers, he enjoys skiing at Gore Mtn. and hiking and biking throughout upstate NY.

Renee Rosenstein Named Mortgage Loan Originator of Retail Lending at Ballston Spa National Bank

Renee Rosenstein. Photo provided.

BALLSTON SPA — Renee Rosenstein has been appointed mortgage loan originator of retail lending at Ballston Spa National Bank (BSNB), according to President & CEO Christopher R. Dowd. 

In this role, Rosenstein will be responsible for originating mortgages through referrals from BSNB branches and relationships with realtors and builders. Rosenstein brings more than 20 years of mortgage experience in the Capital Region to her new position. She is an active member in the Women’s Council of Realtors.

Dake Foundation for Children Announces 2023 Board of Directors

SARATOGA SPRINGS — The Dake Foundation for Children has announced their 2023 Board of Directors slate, welcoming three new members to its ranks. Founded by Gary Dake, President of Stewart’s Shops, the Foundation has provided grants to local children with disabilities since 2009 with a focus on inclusion, independence, and fun.

The Dake Foundation’s Board, comprised of 15 community volunteers, will welcome Pam Fisher – Director of Community Relations for Hudson Headwaters Health Network, Linda Miller – pediatric Doctor of Physical Therapy, and JoAnne Starks – Director of Marketing for AAFCPAs.

“Having grown up with progressive hearing loss, the mission of the Foundation is personal to me,” said Fisher of her new role. “I know firsthand that equipment and technology exist that can provide people with greater access to fun. It’s heartbreaking to me that people may opt out of fun activities because they can’t access adaptive equipment. I look forward to connecting young people with these opportunities and furthering the mission of the Foundation.”

Miller joins as a full board member after serving on the Medical Advisory Panel for the past year – a group of specialists and medical professionals who help steer the grant giving process. Starks brings with her over 20 years of marketing experience, and loves to support projects that foster education, youth development, and diversity and inclusion.

“We are a very volunteer-driven organization, and we are incredibly blessed to have Pam, Linda, and JoAnne joining the team,” said executive director Sarah Burns. 

The full 2023 Board of Directors line up can be found at www.dakefoundation.org.

Lemery Greisler Promotes Claire E. McRae to Member

Claire E. McRae. Photo provided.

SARATOGA SPRINGS — Lemery Greisler LLC, a leading Capital Region business law firm, has announced the promotion of Claire E. McRae to Member. 

 McRae has been with the firm since the start of her legal career, first in 2011 as a summer clerk and then in 2012 as an associate attorney. She concentrates her practice in the areas of corporate and transactional law, including mergers and acquisitions, as well as the formation and day-to-day operation of corporations, limited liability companies and other business entities.

McRae also practices estate planning and estate settlement, which includes the drafting of wills and trusts as well as the representation of fiduciaries, beneficiaries, and creditors in estate probate and estate administration.

“We have been proud of Claire’s professional development and the skill and knowledge she brings on behalf of our clients,” said Paul A. Levine, a managing partner with the firm. “Lemery Greisler looks forward to Claire’s continued contributions and the perspective that she will add to the management and strong future of the law firm.” 

Prior to graduating law school at Boston College, McRae interned with the Albany County District Attorney’s Office and the Schenectady County Probation Department. She is admitted to practice in the State of New York and is a member of the American Bar Association, the New York State Bar Association, and the Saratoga County Bar Association.

SAIL Announces Tyler Whitney as New Executive Director

Tyler Whitney. Photo provided.

QUEENSBURY —  Southern Adirondack Independent Living (SAIL) has appointed Tyler Whitney as their new Executive Director. 

Marti Burnley, the current Director, is retiring. Whitney has been employed at SAIL for the past three years as Deputy Director and brings an abundance of academic and non-profit work experience to his new role.

“SAIL is a premier agency serving 16 counties and assisting those living with disabilities to live more independently. I am looking forward to continuing the great work of the agency and elevating the importance of independence alongside the incredible staff of this organization,” Whitney said. 

SAIL provides an array of advocacy, health insurance, and nursing home transition services to individuals with disabilities and their families. They also loan out medical equipment at no cost.

The Sugar Fairy Bakes Opening Second Location in Malta this March

A display counter at The Sugar Fairy Bakes in Mechanicville. The company is opening a second location in the Ellsworth Commons in Malta this March. Photo by Dylan McGlynn.

MALTA — The Sugar Fairy Bakes, a from-scratch bakery in Mechanicville, will be opening a second location in the Ellsworth Commons in Malta this March. And for owner Stacie Blair, it’s been some time coming.

Blair founded The Sugar Fairy Bakes in 2019, and initially ran the business out of her home. Blair had planned for the company’s initial storefront to be located in Malta, but the plans were tabled after the COVID-19 pandemic struck in early 2020. 

Shortly after, Blair found an opportunity to establish her bakery in Mechanicville. Now, she’s expanding her horizons back to Malta. 

“It’s been a great year,” said Blair of the bakery’s time in Mechanicville. “We’re staying in Mechanicville, but I’m not utilizing my equipment to its fullest potential. All the equipment I got with the building is factory, and Mechanicville just cannot put forth the demand that my equipment can take care of.”

Sugar Fairy Bakes will be baking items at the Mechanicville location, and delivering them to be sold at the Malta storefront, Blair said. Their location in the Ellsworth Commons is slightly over 2,000 square feet.

And for residents of Malta, Blair said that Sugar Fairy Bakes will offer “old-fashioned, from-scratch” bakery items to the community. Blair emphasized that “99.9%” of their food comes fully from scratch.

“Nothing comes out of a box or a can,” Blair said. “A lot of my ingredients are locally sourced.”

Sugar Fairy Bakes receives eggs from a farm in Melrose, honey and maple syrup from a farm in Cobleskill, and meat from a farm in Schaghticoke, she said. Many of the company’s recipes have been handed down through family members of Blair and her employees, with some over 100 years old.

“We’re just your old-fashioned, small, community bakery,” said Blair.

Sugar Fairy Bakes offers items such as cakes, brownies, cookies, pies, cinnamon buns, quiche, eclairs, cannolis, breakfast sandwiches, and more. 

“We have our signature chocolate chips, and then we do a cookie of the week,” Blair said. “I make over 250 different cookies, so this is a good way to get each one out there. … Every Wednesday is scone day. Thursdays are sweet roll day, so instead of a cinnamon bun, you’d have a raspberry, or strawberry, or blueberry.”

Blair cited the growth of the Malta community as a reason for the expansion, saying the Sugar Fairy Bakes will help fill a need in the area.

“With the Malta community just really growing, I’m giving them something that they don’t have easily accessible,” said Blair. “I’m putting in their hands fresh-made, cracked-egg breakfast sandwiches and baked goods that they don’t have anywhere else.”

Blair also hopes that the opening of her second location will begin a trend for the company. Blair said her plan is for Sugar Fairy Bakes to be franchised in the next 10 years.

“I have a 10-year plan. Within 10 years, we will be franchised,” Blair said. “That’s the plan. We have Mechanicville, we have Malta. … But I will never get so big that I can’t do from-scratch, and I can’t do what makes me, me.”

But first comes the opening of the Malta location, which offers something “real” to the local community, Blair said.

“When you’re cooking from scratch, you’re using real butter, you’re using real eggs, you’re using flour, you’re using sugar,” said Blair. “You’re combining all these ingredients together to produce the end product. You’re not using processed, chemically-preserved cheap alternatives to create it. In the end, not only do you have a healthier product, but you have a better-tasting product. The quality just speaks for itself.”

Goldfish Swim School Opening Clifton Park Location This Summer

Photos courtesy of Goldfish Swim School.

CLIFTON PARK — A new opportunity for kids to learn to swim will be coming to Clifton Park this summer. Goldfish Swim School, which has a location in Colonie, will be opening a school in the North Country Commons in Clifton Park. 

Goldfish Swim School offers year-round swimming lessons to kids ranging from four months to 12 years old. They also offer family swims, party packages, and more. 

“We want to make it convenient and easy for families to get their kids into regular, high-quality swim lessons at a place like Goldfish,” said Courtney Richardson, operations manager for the Colonie and Clifton Park locations.

Clifton Park was selected as the company’s second Albany-area location, with Richardson saying this is due to the large number of families in the area.

“Given the success of our Goldfish Swim School Colonie location, it made sense for us to add an additional learn-to-swim facility to serve more families in the community,” said Richardson. “We know that Clifton Park and Saratoga County families want to make sure that their kids learn to swim, as it is a critical life skill.”

The company will be constructing a 25 by 68-foot pool in their location at the Commons. The total space is 6,800 square feet, Richardson said. The pool will be heated to 90 degrees, and is large enough to accommodate multiple lessons at once. 

Students work with “highly-trained instructors,” in small class sizes, Richardson said. Families can enroll in the lessons at any time.

The school will also have an air-conditioned viewing room for parents, as well as a snack bar and retail shop. There will be private changing rooms and a blow-dry station for swimmers, Richardson said.

Students are sorted into classes based on their skill level. Goldfish begins with caregiver/baby classes for children starting at four months old. The company also has a recreational swim team, Swim Force.

“Because we use a perpetual model versus sessions, students process through our curriculum at their own pace, and they can move to the next level of classes at the same lesson time slot when they have mastered the skills in their current lesson level,” said Richardson.

Richardson said Goldfish not only allows kids to learn to swim, but helps them build life skills and connections with fellow students and instructors. 

“Swimming is an essential life skill. All kids need to learn how to be safer in and around the water,” Richardson said. “However, kids learn so much more at Goldfish Swim School. …Ultimately, Goldfish is a place that both kids and parents want to come to each week while kids put in the repetition and practice to learn this critical life skill.”

Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce Releases Insights for November 2022

A graph showing the employment figures in Saratoga County from January-October 2019 to 2022 (Via Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce).

SARATOGA COUNTY — The Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce has released insights from January to November of 2022, saying the county collected “a record amount of sales taxes when compared to the last three years.” The report also states that unemployment rates in the county “remains consistently lower than ever before” even with limited local workforce reductions.

Saratoga County collected $144.6 million in sales taxes from January to November, the report states. This is a 5.3% increase from the same period in 2021, and a 23.5% increase from 2019. Tax collections in the City of Saratoga Springs also increased to $15.2 million, up 16.3% from the previous year ($13.1 million).

In comparison to other local counties, Saratoga County’s sales tax collections increased at a higher rate than Schenectady County (4.2%), but at a lower rate than Albany and Warren Counties (11.2% and 8.3%, respectively).

The unemployment rate in Saratoga County in November 2022 was 2.1%, the report says, with 2,600 people considered to be unemployed. There were 120,900 people employed in the county in November, which the report states is the highest number of people employed in the county in the month. The report also states that the labor shortage is expected to continue into 2023, saying “there are still so many local jobs unfulfilled,” despite limited workforce reductions.

In terms of lodging, the report states that the county’s revenue per available room was $103.70, a 25% increase from the same period in 2021 and an 11.7% increase from 2019. Total occupancy for local hotels increased nearly 13% from 2021, says the report, and were 2% lower than in 2019.

The Greater Capital Association of Realtors reported that Saratoga County saw 2,776 closed real estate sales from January through November 2022. The report says this figure is “nearly identical” to numbers from 2019 and 2020, but is a 10% decrease from 2021 figures. 

The overall number of new listings has also decreased, “and as a result,” the county’s median sales price was $388,000, a 10% increase. Through the first eleven months of 2022, the report states that the amount of days a home is on the market continues to decline, and the percent of the original list price received is over 102%.

Mission Accomplished: Family Visits Every Stewart’s (358!) in 2022

CAIRO — Stewart’s Shops, one of the area’s most beloved businesses, has spread its operations throughout New York State and Vermont. And one family has seen them all.

Kristin and Augie Freemann, along with their son Kody, spent 2022 traveling across the state to visit every available Stewart’s location. 

Augie Freemann said the idea came about after hearing of a couple who visited every Cracker Barrel location in the United States.

“I said to my wife, ‘Oh, that’s something we would do.’ And she said, ‘Yeah, we could go to every Stewart’s’,” said Freemann. “We looked into it, and it seemed feasible, so here we are.”

To up the challenge for themselves, the Freemanns decided they would visit every Stewart’s location within a calendar year. Residents of Cairo, the family began on Jan. 1, 2022, visiting nearby locations in Cairo and Greenville. 

They also received some assistance from Stewart’s themselves. Kristin Freemann said the company shared a spreadsheet with the family, containing information about all of their locations. 

“We’d pick a weekend and say, ‘Where do we want to go?’” said Kristin Freemann. “We would map out and also kind of decide how many we wanted to do in a given day.”

Stewart’s currently has 358 locations, the Freemanns said. While the Cairo and Greenville locations are relatively close to the family, some stores took quite a bit of driving. 

“Some we had to be a little more strategic with, like any that were out in St. Lawrence County, out in Potsdam, Malone, and the ones that were up by Plattsburgh,” said Kristin Freemann. “Those we actually did as a weekend trip.”

The family said it was “really nice” to be able to see parts of the state they typically would not have traveled to.

“Up by Plattsburgh and Lake Champlain is beautiful, and we hadn’t really ever spent a lot of time up there,” said Kristin Freemann. “Same with the St. Lawrence area, Thousand Islands, out that way was beautiful. So, it was really nice.”

They also reconnected with old friends along the way, with Freemann saying she met up with a friend who currently lives in Potsdam while the family was in the area. 

“It actually became fun,” Freemann said. “I know people think we’re crazy. It was kind of a silly, crazy thing to do. …We didn’t have any reason to do this other than it was a silly, fun thing to do as a family.”

As part of the challenge, the family had to purchase a product at each location. 

“All three of us had to physically go into every single store, and we had to purchase something at every store,” said Kristin Freemann. “Fuel did not count. We obviously had to buy gas or whatever, but we would buy a product of some kind, at least one, at every store. … (Kody) got to pick a lot of the snacks, that was the fun part.”

Kody said his favorite snack from the experience was the gummies. The family said a majority of the stores had mostly similar offerings but did note some variety throughout the state.

“Especially when it came to their hot foods,” said Kristin Freemann. “Some would have a specific kind of breakfast sandwich, or a specific kind of chicken sandwich. There were times where we would find things that we hadn’t seen in other stores.”

The family also said one constant was the staff, who Kristin Freemann said were “so nice” at every location.

“All of the employees at every single store, across the board, were really friendly. That’s something that’s hard to say about a chain,” Freemann said. “Every single store we went into, everyone was really nice.”

The Freemanns finished their quest on the final day of the year, hitting eight stores on New Year’s Eve. Kristin Freemann said they saved six locations in Ballston Spa and two in Mechanicville for the final day of the journey.

“We strategically planned that as well,” said Kristin Freemann. “Because Saratoga County had the most, but they’re also very close together, we knew that if we left Saratoga County kind of to the end, that we would be able to make it work.”

The family’s final Stewart’s was on Church Avenue in Ballston Spa, where the original Stewart’s location first opened. 

“Kody was concerned though, when we went into our last store, he said, ‘So does this mean we can’t go to Stewart’s anymore?’,” said Kristin Freemann. “I said, ‘Nope, we just don’t have to drive really far to go to Stewart’s now.”

Ultimately, what began as the Freemann’s quest to visit every location of a beloved local chain turned into nearly a full year of quality time and fun as a family. 

“It was really nice that we could just do something that was silly and fun, for no other reason than just to spend time with each other,” said Kristin Freemann. “We were able to spend quality time together, do something fun, and see parts of the state that we never get to see.

“Even those weekend trips we did where we were away, we did other things than go to Stewart’s. We would make a point to go on a hike somewhere. When we were in the Thousand Islands, we went and visited Boldt Castle. … It was really nice spending quality family time together just for fun. There was no reason for us to do this other than that.”