Seriously, what is going on?
First, Arrogate loses again, but at least he was laying it down at the wire.
Second, Songbird got nipped at the wire in the Grade I Personal Ensign.
Third…worst Travers ever! Just kidding, but how come not a single Triple Crown-race winner—Always Dreaming, Cloud Computing, or Tapwrit—hit the board? Good Samaritan, yr. correspondent’s pick, put in a monster run, but got going too late, too wide, and settled for fifth on his second start on dirt.
The real head scratcher might be Cloud Computing, who got about as easy a trip as one could draw up and flattened out. Classic Empire, wherever he is these days, is like, “I lost to him in the Preak?”
About the only thing following the script is the battle for leading trainer between Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher. As of this writing (Wednesday morning, Pacific Time), both superlative trainers are tied with 33 wins apiece with six days of racing remaining in the meet.
Is this even fair that these two should be so dominant? Linda Rice, the last trainer not named Brown or Pletcher to win the leading trainer title (2009) is in third place with 14 wins. Fourth place is Bill Mott and Kiaran McLaughlin with 11. McLaughlin, who was Saratoga’s leading trainer in 2008, won the title with—wait for it—17 wins!
Brown has a staggering 20 wins on turf from 82 starters. Pletcher has 10. Thirteen of Rice’s 14 wins are also on grass.
Pletcher has always made a name for himself with two-year-olds, and it’s no surprise that he’s leading the way with four wins from 15 starters. Only Mark Casse has as many starters as Pletcher. Brown only has one win from seven juvenile starters.
So where is the Pletcher Industrial Complex getting its wins? Twenty-three wins from 75 starters from all sexes on dirt. He’s ITM 67 percent of the time. Nineteen of those wins are from colts or horses, only four from fillies or mares.
The two Equi-politcal superpowers are hardwired for Saratoga. Turf and two-year-olds.
If you’re going to lifehack your way to Saratoga riches, there’s no better way than to be a better turf trainer and get better turf horses.
For other trainers, it will take years to catch up to Brown and Pletcher. The Toddster has had a vice grip on Saratoga based largely on success with two-year-olds. He gets a chunk of them to the Breeders’ Cup and the Kentucky Derby, which begets more of the same.
When Brown started his own string in 2008, he was primarily a turf trainer, but as he proved his Bobby Franklin worth, started to get some dirt horses. Finishing fourth in the Derby with Normandy Invasion in 2017 may have been that moment for him announcing his entrance onto the most prominent stage in North American horse racing.
These things take time, generations of horses even. You can’t forget to plant in the spring and hope to harvest in the fall with late-night gardening sesh.
With Brown’s stranglehold on the turf runners, his future as the dominant trainer at Saratoga is only limited by his capacity to bring along young horses.
You might say the same for Pletcher. If he doesn’t want to relinquish his grip as Saratoga’s GOAT, he may have to look to the grass. Brown out-started Pletcher nearly 2-1 on grass (82-47).
Who knows what the sales pitches are for each barn. Perhaps Brown tells owners, “Listen, grass may not be as popular or prestigious in North America, but the competition is less dense than it is on dirt and we can make a nice little pot of money.”
Just look at Brown’s Saratoga turf earnings: $2,315,211. Pletcher at No. 2 has earnings of “just” $722,449 on grass.
Pletcher’s sales pitch likely is, “I can get you to the Derby. Sure, my record isn’t what you’d call superb, but the fact is I get horses to that starting gate. I’m a stallion maker. I’ll make you some coin on the track and bank after we tally a couple Grade 1s, please and thank you.”
It could be that winning leading trainer titles is merely icing on the cake. Nobody will cater their horse buying to winning at one track, but if Brown aims to keep winning this Game of Thrones, he’ll need to step up his two-year-old game. Winning the Preakness this year will go a long way to securing that.
Pletcher, no slacker when it comes to grass, will likely have to elevate that game as well, summoning the great English Channel, his 2007 Breeders’ Cup Turf champ, to do so.
As for the other trainers? Might I suggest Snapple’s slogan c. 1996: “We want to be No. 3.”
Brendan O’Meara is a freelance writer and author of Six Weeks in Saratoga. He also hosts The Creative Nonfiction Podcast. Say hello on Twitter @BrendanOMeara.
