Skip to main content

Author: Kacie Cotter-Harrigan

Eyeing Inflation: Election Season & Beyond

For most of this year the markets have been moved by only one thing: Covid. Now, though, as election day draws nearer, and rhetoric intensifies, markets will have to begin to contend with the potential outcomes of the election.

Regardless of your political inclinations, or ours, there are certain areas of the economy which will perform better under one or another outcome. There are also areas which will perform relatively well regardless of the outcome. You should be working with your advisor to objectively adjust your portfolios in such a way as to help capitalize on those pockets of opportunity while trying to remain defensive against possible pitfalls. 

In the short-term, it may make sense to make strategic changes to the proportion of portfolios allocated to stocks, as you watch the election season unfold. In the event of a contested election with a drawn-out legal battle, markets may experience greater than normal volatility. Having less exposure could help you weather that storm. It remains to be seen, for all of the talk, whether vote-by-mail is utilized as much as some expect. We don’t expect this volatility to be a long-term phenomenon at this point. 

Technology is still likely to remain a focus regardless of the outcome, as innovations in telecommuting, e-commerce, and entertainment continue to make our current semi-secluded lives possible and tolerable. 

Non-US companies may begin to show more promise as their fundamentals improve compared to US companies, post-Covid, and you may look to capitalize on this in portfolios.

Through election season and beyond, we are eyeing inflation. 

Currently worldwide production is still down, while consumption has increased substantially. Too many dollars chasing too few goods is the recipe for inflation, and you may want to consider making necessary adjustments in portfolios to account for this.

Used cars, for example, have experienced the highest rate of inflation in more than 51 years! Every year a percentage of the US fleet simply ages out and is scrapped. Add to that a general fear of public transportation, which has been forcing people into the car market who may not otherwise have owned one. In a year when very few new used cars have been produced, the demand for used cars has soared forcing prices into record territory. Expect other scarce items to follow suit.

The Fed has indicated that it is willing to allow inflation to run higher than normal, without taking action. While we are not expecting hyperinflation, we do think prices will increase at a greater than average rate. Even if the Fed doesn’t take action, there are steps you can take to help reduce the impact on your portfolio.

In the mid- to long-term, we expect taxes to increase. The government has been spending money at a record clip. The purchase of US debt by foreign holders has decreased this year, which means that the deficit must be funded either by increasing the purchase of debt by US holders, or from tax revenue. Regardless of who wins the election, we expect a tax increase, although it will likely not be shared by everyone.

It appears that this election will be a very close one. Emotions are running high on all sides. We urge you to try to tune out the noise as much as possible. Regardless of the outcome, there will be opportunities in the markets, you should be working side-by-side with your Certified Financial Planner® to help ensure your portfolio can weather the uncertainty, volatility, and inflation on the horizon. 

Stephen Kyne, CFP® is a Partner at Sterling Manor Financial, LLC in Saratoga Springs and Rhinebeck.

Securities offered through Cadaret, Grant & Co., Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Sterling Manor Financial, LLC, or Cadaret, Grant & Co., Inc., SEC registered investment advisors. Sterling Manor Financial and Cadaret, Grant are separate entities. This article contains opinion and forward-looking statements which are subject to change. Consult your investment advisor regarding your own investment needs.

Grieving: Lost Loved Ones, Jobs, and Lifestyle

Loss comes in many forms, and during the last several months, some people have experienced nearly all of them at the same time: a loved one, a job, and even our way of life. All of our plans, pulled out from under us like the proverbial rug, and we have no idea when some form of “normalcy” will return. 

Loss comes in many forms, and during the last several months, some people have experienced nearly all of them at the same time: a loved one, a job, and even our way of life. All of our plans, pulled out from under us like the proverbial rug, and we have no idea when some form of “normalcy” will return. 

You may not realize it, but some part of you is likely grieving. Grief is a difficult emotion, to say the least—especially because, as a society, we talk so little about it. It is expected you will grieve the loss of someone close to you, which is particularly difficult in a time of so much upheaval. But it is important to give yourself permission and space to grieve any and all losses. You can’t move on until you move through it. And—you can’t do it alone.

More often than not, grief needs to be witnessed. Healing begins through sharing that pain out loud, to be heard and recognized and validated. While some moments of being alone can help you process your feelings, too much isolation can be detrimental to your ability to move through your grief to heal. Try reaching out to someone you trust and talk about what you are feeling. 

People who have lost loved ones during this pandemic may also have lost the support of having family and friends around them. COVID requires isolation to avoid infection, so many people grieve alone. In some cases, they could not be with their loved ones while they were ill and could only see them virtually during those final moments. 

Funeral services are required to be smaller today, to avoid potential COVID-19 exposure. Some people struggle with that, feeling they have dishonored their loved ones by not doing more. This added layer of regret and guilt exacerbates the grief, even though none of it is their fault. 

Others feel guilty because they did not lose someone, they lost something—a job, weekly gathering of friends, being a part of a sports team, or the college dorm they had called “home.” They feel they don’t have a right to be sad, that these things don’t warrant grief. Not so. These are still losses in our lives, and losses cause grief. It is important and healthy for you to cry and release the feelings created by such losses. Avoiding or stuffing these feelings can only make things worse.

Be gentle with yourself. People tend to be hard on themselves, thinking they aren’t doing things right or should be “holding up better.” Give yourself a break. Grief is hard enough. It’s more important to focus on how you are than how you “should” be. That’s why it is so important to look for comfort and support from others when you are grieving. 

For adults grieving the death of a loved one, I host an online Grief Support Group through Saratoga Hospital on the first and third Wednesday of every month from 6 to 7 p.m. The group discusses various topics involving this kind of grief, with time for participants to share whatever is on their mind about their loss. To receive the virtual meeting invitation, please call 518-886-5210.

Good grief work also includes releasing your feelings even if someone else is not around, through crying or writing your feelings down. A grief journal can be a powerful tool, something you can turn to at a moment’s notice, when your thoughts and feelings are hanging heavy on your heart. You can: 

Write about the person, place, or thing you are missing; 
Express your feelings in whatever form makes the most sense to you, be it poetry orfinger-painting;
Let go of perfection and just feel, no spelling or editing necessary; and 
Don’t hold back. You will have done the good grief work in the writing, even if you shred the pages when you’re done. 

For additional resources on grief of all kinds and other behavioral and mental health concerns, talk with your doctor and visit the Saratoga Hospital website to learn about our Behavioral and Mental Health services. Learn more at SaratogaHospital.org. 

Saratoga Springs, The JEWEL of New York State

I’m failing to see the financial savings, government improvement nor equal or improved accountability offered by the proposed new Charter. 

I think any reasonable guestimate would conclude that there will be at least a $200,000 increase in the cost of government. 

Saratoga Springs, THE JEWEL of New York State, has the second lowest city property tax rate. How much better will a City manager make it? Why is there no New York State city with a City Manager form of government that is a better place to live, with lower taxes?

We have the most accountable city government in the state. You get to vote for all the commissioners and the Mayor. If you don’t like the way a department is operating select a new commissioner in the next election, within two years. 

With the proposed new charter you get to vote for a largely ceremonial mayor and one ward representative. How do you change anything?

When our country is more divisive than I have ever seen it, the ward system will pit one area of Saratoga Springs against another instead of working together. 

I see nothing in this proposed charter change that makes any sense. 

– Ben Mirling, Former Commissioner of Accounts, Saratoga Springs

Support Saratoga’s Current Form of Government

I am once again supporting the current form of government.  I am saddened to think that the people who want to change the current form of government support manipulating the boundaries of an electoral constituency to have the freedom to gerrymander the results they want.

– Miriam G. Scarborough, Saratoga Springs

Food For Thought

COOKING UP CHANGE – BOTH IN AND OUTSIDE OF THE SCHOOL CAFETERIA
Like so many others this year, school cafeterias are doing things differently. Providing free lunches has been one of them.

Since March, in a move meant to ease the financial toll the pandemic is having on families, the US Department of Agriculture has been reimbursing school cafeterias for the meals they serve through their National Lunch Program. Then, in August, it was decided that free lunches would be made available to all students until December. In Schuylerville, there are approximately 1500 students enrolled. 

On October 1, legislation authorized the USDA to extend National School Lunch Program waivers through Sept. 30, 2021. The costs of these free lunches, however, are already rolling in.

“School food services are struggling all over country. We were operating on a shoestring budget already, so we rely on the reimbursement of meals and on a la cart sales – and these sales are way down,” said Sarah Keen, Schuylerville’s Food Services Manager for six years. 

THE HIDDEN COSTS
The price tag of providing free lunches for so many kids are substantial. As they stand now, the Federal and State reimbursements are not going to be enough to balance the school food budget. These reimbursements are $1.99/breakfast and $3.57/lunch. 

“That’s the flat rate, regardless of what we put in it,” said Keen. 

It also doesn’t factor in that fewer students are choosing school meals.

“We’re desperate for kids to come back in and get school meals,” said Keen.

In September, Schuylerville’s food services revenue was down $20,000 in a la cart, and down $20,000 in meal sales. 

{loadmoduleid 268}

FEEDING THE PROBLEM
So why aren’t kids getting school food? People are choosing to bring their lunch, and many students just aren’t hungry at lunch time now because schedules have some eating as early as 10:15 a.m. It also doesn’t account for the additional safety precautions that have been put in place to meet health guidelines. 

These are mainly in the form of additional staff time, lots of packaging and trash. 

Pre-plated and packaged items have replaced traditional options for meals served both on-campus and off, devastating greening initiatives that had previously been in place.

“It’s just a juggling act to make it work,” said Keen.

FINDING BALANCE WITH FARM-TO-SCHOOL
Choosing to create a more closed system with farm-to-school has many benefits. It was announced this week that Schuylerville will be the recipient of the Farm-to-School Project Grant administered through Cornell Cooperative Extension. 

A participant in farm-to-school projects for more than a decade, Schuylerville spends 30 percent of their district food budget on NY products. They partner with seven NYS farms, including neighbors Kings Dairy, Saratoga Apple, Thomas Poultry, and Old Saratoga Maple. They’ve received food donations from Old Saratoga Mercantile and Irving Tissue, among others. The grant will help Pitney Meadows Farm in Saratoga build a new greenhouse while also awarding $2,000 to the school for new kitchen equipment. 

“What I’ve heard most about the program now is the sense of normalcy that kids feel – they can still have that Stewart’s chocolate milk and the pizza that they’re used to,” said Keen.

“Life is a Combination of Magic and Pasta”

Hello my Foodie Friends!

Autumn is here and the cooler weather often triggers our desire for pasta. There is something about eating carbohydrates, creamy sauces, and earthy autumnal vegetables that makes the autumn season ideal for pasta consumption. No matter what they contain, fall pasta dishes must be warm, they must be hearty, and, above all, they must be deeply satisfying. My love for pasta stems from growing up in an Italian-American household where pasta was always a staple in many of the meals we had. I often times reflect on the joys of growing up with an Italian family such as: when your friends came over they were asked no fewer than six times if they wanted something to eat; Frank Sinatra or Dean Martin played in the background while everything was being cooked; leftovers were stored in Polly O ricotta containers; and, yes, we were all guilty of talking with our hands. One of my favorites is remembering when I was little, mine, and my four other siblings favorite way to help was making home made pasta with Nonni (my grandmother). After we washed our hands we were allowed to help if we were quiet and didn’t fight with each other. Very hard! The luckiest kid got to guide the pasta as Nonni rolled the pasta through the machine. Stirring her secret pasta sauce with the wooden spoon was a close second. I am certain you can visualize what the kitchen smelled and looked like during this process. Once the pasta was made, the dish created and all were seated, it was always a struggle getting Nonni to actually join the table and eat. I’ve tried to carry on these traditions with my own children. 

Making homemade pasta is a fun event to get the entire family involved with. One important tool to have when making homemade pasta is a Pasta machine. A pasta machine is used to create laminated pasta. They typically consist of two stainless-steel rollers with adjustable settings, which knead and stretch the pasta dough. Pasta machines are often sold with an additional removable cutter that creates pasta shapes such as spaghetti and linguini. There are also many different attachments available, from different-shaped cutters to attachable motors. 

Consider pasta as a meal that brings you together as a family from start to finish. We’ve learned from our older generations and teach our younger generations. No matter what you’re looking for, pasta and noodles have become entwined with culture, history, and more importantly in our lives and families. Stop by Compliments to the Chef, your Neighborhood Kitchen and Cutlery Store located at 33 Railroad Place in Saratoga Springs. We carry all types of tools to assist you with making your pasta: Pasta machines, pasta drying racks, ravioli stamps and forms, pasta rollers, pastry cutters, pasta pots, and so much more.  Remember my Foodie Friends: “Life Happens in the Kitchen.”  Make those magical culinary moments happen.

 Take Care,
John & Paula

HOMEMADE PASTA RECIPE

Yield: approximately one pound

2 cups flour 
1/2 teaspoon sea salt
3 large eggs

1. Combine the flour and salt. Make a well in the center and add the eggs. Gently begin to mix the eggs, gradually drawing in flour with each stroke. Eventually a stiff dough will form.
2. Knead the pasta dough for 8-10 minutes. If the dough is too dry and won’t stick together, add a 1/2 teaspoon of water. If it is too sticky, sprinkle in a bit more flour. Keep in mind this dough will be much stiffer than traditional bread dough. However, the longer you work it, the smoother and more pliable it will become. We are looking for a smooth, satiny consistency, which will develop the longer you knead.
3. Cover the well-kneaded dough tightly with plastic wrap, and allow it to rest for around 45 minutes. (This resting phase is super important, as it gives the dough time to relax. Otherwise, you’ll fight it the whole time you are rolling it out.)
4. After the resting period, divide the dough into four portions and roll into a small, flat circle. Now comes the cool part!

HOW TO USE A PASTA MACHINE

• Rolling the dough is a process– you need to make several passes, throughout each thickness setting for the best results. Start with the biggest setting (usually 5 or 6), run it through once or twice there, then gradually adjust the settings to be thinner and thinner until you have the perfect sheet of golden pasta.
• Between each pass, fold the strip into thirds. This helps square up the edges and keeps things even. Then simply roll it through the cutting side of the machine to slice into spaghetti or fettuccine. From here, you can either cook your pasta right away (3-4 minutes in boiling water) or dry it for later.

REARDON PastaPileUp

Fall Favorites at the Farmers’ Market

Before the farmers’ market moves back indoors, we spend one last month with our tents up and our coats on to share fresh, local products with our community. Summer produce makes way for the fall harvest; a time for comforting food and drinks and festive seasonal products. Here are ten fall favorites you can find at our markets in October.

1. Apple Cider and Cider Donuts:
Saratoga Apple and Slyboro Cider House both operate their own orchards. Try their fresh apples, pressed apple cider, hard cider, and cider donuts. A real Upstate NY treat!

2. Pumpkin Pandemonium Peanut Butter:
The name says it all. This Saratoga Peanut Butter Company creation is chock-full of rich pumpkin and peanut flavors. A guilt-free treat at only 2 grams of sugar per serving, it’s great on sandwiches, apples, ice cream, and more.

3. Hand-Painted Hats:
Artist Gretchen Tisch, owner of Feathered Antler gives hats a fall makeover. Pick up a leaf-accented fedora or hand-knit beanie at the market.

4. Hot Chocolate Cheesecake:
Grandma Apple’s Cheesecakes’ flavors vary with the season. Our current favorite is hot chocolate cheesecake. It’s perfect for when you have company, but perfectly acceptable to eat all by yourself! Also available are apple and pumpkin cheesecakes and cheesecake filled apples dipped in chocolate.

5. Apple Cider Fromage Frais:
Nettle Meadow does cheesemaking with a creative touch, and it shows with their seasonal favorites. Back at the market are the soft apple cider fromage frais, pumpkin spice and maple chevre, and the brie-like Early Snow.

6. Local Wool:
Elihu Farm’s sheep produce award-winning wool, sold as washed and unwashed fleeces at the market. Pick up a fleece to do some cozy fall crafting!

7. Spooky Soaps:
At Saratoga Suds ‘n’ Stuff, no shape of soap is too crazy. Their fall mineral soap collection includes ghosts, pumpkins, black cats, acorns, leaves, and owls.

8. Ornamental Corn:
Fresh summer corn is making way for ornamental fall corn. Pick up some calico or broom corn from local farms for fresh seasonal home decor.

9. Hand-Ground Cinnamon:
Saratoga Spicery’s fresh-ground spices and spice mixes include hand-ground cinnamon. Give your baked goods an extra fresh flavor!

10. Pumpkins!
Farmers’ markets in October wouldn’t be complete without fresh gourds and winter squash. Local farms have a variety of colors, shapes, and sizes in stock – you can even find some hand-painted mini pumpkins.

Saratoga Farmers’ Market runs at Wilton Mall 3-6 p.m. Wednesdays and 9 a.m.-1 p.m. Saturdays. Follow us on Facebook and Instagram. Subscribe to our newsletter www.saratogafarmersmarket.org/weekly-newsletter

Fm WoolRoving

Builder’s Corner: Does Your Kitchen Pass the Timeless Test? Timeless vs. Trendy Styles in Kitchens

Builders and housing market experts know that kitchens and bathrooms sell homes. 

With more people working and learning from home, many are taking the time to upgrade or restyle their kitchens. But how can you be sure that your investment will maintain its value over time? 

Your best bet is to invest in timeless designs and high-end materials instead of trends that may fade in a few years. Things like stainless steel appliances and fixtures never go out of style. The same goes for granite and quartz surfaces, they stand up to the test of time. In fact, quartz has been surging in popularity for years and is taking over granite.

EleanorLindaDesignAndPhotographyPhoto by Eleanor Linda Design & Photography.

Here are 4 kitchen trends that are going away and will be considered passé in 2021. 

1. A desk space in the kitchen was all the rage for about a decade because much of family life does revolve around the kitchen. Now with so much working and learning from home there is a real temptation to work at the kitchen counter. The problem is that a kitchen desk just ends up stacked with papers and clutter that you do not want to see in your dream kitchen. Avoid this dated trend and instead invest in creating a household home office/learning center. 

2. Tile countertops recently made a brief resurgence in more minimalist designs. They are less expensive than granite and other solid natural countertop surfaces. But regardless of tile size and design, it is a maintenance headache because they can chip and break easily. It is also difficult to keep them clean where the grout lines get full of crumbs. 

3. Minimal backsplashes are out. Splatters do not have aim.  Therefore, the top where the backsplash ends inevitably ends up stained.  Go for installing ceramic subway tile, or a colored glass backsplash that goes all the way from the counter to the cabinets. Or for a really high-end finish, add a solid countertop material for the backsplash. These designs are much easier to keep clean and are aesthetically more pleasing.

4. Bright appliances have been a popular style trend and were being used as a way to break up the old standard stainless steel that’s been a staple for years. But turquoise stoves and mint refrigerators are destined to be dated very quickly. Invest in stainless steel which is timeless.

How does your kitchen stack up? 
HERE IS THE LIST OF TIMELESS VS TRENDY

Timeless

Stainless steel appliances
Inside counter storage
Traditional doors
Granite and quartz countertops

Trendy

• Bright colored appliances
• Pot racks
• Barn Doors
• Marble, tile, wood

Planting in Fall for Spring

Nothing cheers us up in spring more than the appearance of the first flowers from the bulbs we plant in fall. 

Think of these small bulbs as rechargeable batteries. They don’t store electricity but “growth energy.” 

Daffodils, tulips and all the Dutch bulbs offered for sale in the fall must be planted before winter. These bulbs need eight weeks of chilling to stimulate them into their next flowering cycle. Chilling in the ground over winter causes an enzyme change within the bulb. Without that chill, the bulb won’t be ready to grow in spring. Timing is everything. 

It’s always best to seek out the highest quality bulbs. When you buy bulbs, they’re all “charged up” for you by the producer in Holland. The Dutch have been producing flower bulbs since the 1500’s so they have a wealth of experience. When given a choice, choose the largest bulbs you can find. A bigger bulb is closer to becoming two bulbs, so there is an advantage to being picky.

On each package you’ll see bloom times listed as “early spring, mid spring, late spring, and early summer.” 

The next bit of information you’ll need is flower height.  This will help you avoid putting taller plants in front of shorter ones that bloom at the same time.  Height information is also handy when mixing bulbs into established perennial flowerbeds. 

The rule of thumb for planting bulbs is to dig the hole two to three times as deep as the bulb is tall.  Don’t be too fussy though since bulbs will actually reposition themselves at the proper depth as they grow over time.

Bulbs are most impressive when mass planted.  I consider five bulbs to be a minimum group.  Larger groups are even more impressive. Roots start growing right away, and they’ll gain a little extra energy for the spring flowering cycle.  Those roots will help anchor the bulbs in the soil so winter frost won’t heave them upward.

That’s it…pretty simple really. If you take time this fall to plant bulbs, you’ll thank yourself when they emerge after a long winter to announce the arrival of spring. All the beautiful flowers I grow in summer can’t give me the same thrill I get when I discover the first snowdrop or crocus emerging as the last of the winter’s snow retreats from the gardens.

THANKS FOR THE READ!